Some polls show that the ‘No to 10 million’ initiative could win by a narrow margin. Who in Switzerland is in favour of the hard-right proposal?
Two surveys have been published in recent weeks about the voter sentiment towards the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) ‘No to 10 million’ initiative – arguably the most polarising anti-immigration bid of recent years.
The latest poll, carried out among 2,500 voters in May byYouGov platform shows that 51 percent will reject the initiative in the June 14th referendum, while 46 percent will support it and 6 percent remain undecided.
However, another poll, conducted on a much larger scale – among 16,000 voters – at the end of April by Tamedia, revealed that a slight majority (52 percent) will vote ‘yes.’
On the other hand, 46 percent oppose it, and 2 percent are still undecided.
Who exactly is in favour of the immigration cap?
The surveys reveals that a regional / linguistic divide plays a major role.
Specifically, Italian-speaking Ticino, along with German-speaking cantons, back the initiative (53 and 54 percent, respectively), while support only reaches 48 percent in French-speaking Switzerland.
A divide between urban and rural areas has also emerged: city dwellers reject the proposal by 55 percent, while it has a 57-percent support in rural parts of the country – not coincidentally, the areas where most of SVP backers live.
In fact, previous referendums had clearly shown that the SVP’s anti-immigration rhetoric resonates most within the farm and agricultural community – even though they too rely on foreign workers for harvests and other tasks.
But there is more: the age divide
And it is – in this particular instance – quite surprising.
Usually, younger generation is seen as more liberal in their views, while older people tend to have conservative values.
Except in this case.
According to the Tamedia poll, 46 percent of those in the 18 to 34 age group said they are in favour of limiting immigration, while 41 percent oppose it.
Among those aged 35 to 49, 53 percent will vote yes, and 36 percent against.
Moving on to voters from 50 to 64 – 48 percent support the move and 41 percent reject it.
Support for the initiative wanes significantly among the oldest demographic: voters above 65.
Only 39 percent approve of the measure, while 50 percent do not.
Simple math suggests that a vast majority of people up to the age of 64 back the initiative.
The divide is therefore clearly drawn between people of working age and the retirees – with the latter less concerned about the initiative’s effects (for example, competition for jobs and housing) than the former.
And then there is a matter of income and education
The Tamedia survey demonstrates another divide: the higher the level of education or salary, the lower the support for the initiative.
Most of those who back lower immigration (65 percent) have only compulsory schooling, compared to just 32 percent among university graduates.
And those earning less than 4,000 francs per month accept the proposal at a rate of 61 percent, while voters with high incomes (over 16,000 francs per month) reject it at a rate of 53 percent.
READ MORE: What happens next if Swiss voters approve ‘No to 10 million’ initiative?
