Opponents of the ‘No to 10 million initiative’ are sounding yet another alarm about the potential consequences for Switzerland’s residents if the far-right bid to curb immigration passes.
Many warnings have been raised about what could happen if the proposal – which will be voted on in a referendum on June 14th – is approved.
Among the most signigicant consequences cited are severe labour shortages, as well as weakened relations with Switzerland’s main trading partner, the European Union.
READ MORE: How bad would worker shortages be if Switzerland backs anti-immigration proposal?
Another consequence: higher taxes
Among other concerns raised by the proposal’s opponents is the detrimental effect it could have on the finances of Switzerland’s population.
According to Daniel Lampart, chief economist at the Federation of Trade Unions, if the initiative becomes law, Swiss taxpayers could be hit hard in the pockets.
He pointed out that as Switzerland’s birth rate is record-low, and more workers are approaching retirement, fewer employees will finance pension plans for a growing number of elderly people.
“There’s a price to pay when the working-age population declines,” he pointed out.
Raymond Kohli, demography and migration expert at the Federal Statistical Office, agreed.
Having more retired than working people creates “a significant challenge to the pension-find finances ,” he said.
READ MORE: How Switzerland’s hard-right wants to compensate for fewer immigrants
Compensating for losses
As a result of lower contributions – in terms of taxes and social insurance – flowing into government coffers. Lampart said money will have to be found elsewhere.
His analysis indicates that – given this demoraphic reality – in 30 years there would be only two working people for every retiree. Today, there are three.
His calculations have therefore led him to conclude that taxes would have to be raised to offset these losses – concretely, an increase of 635 francs per year for an average household.
The government will use this additional tax-derived income not only to fill the holes in the financing of old-age pensions, but also in that of the healthcare system.
“The initiative implies a tax increase if the level of benefits is to be maintained,” he summed up.
‘Theoretical problems’
In response to these arguments, Thomas Aeschi from the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which instigated the ‘No to 10 million’ move, rejected the validity of Lampart’s calculations.
He is “dealing with theoretical problems in the distant future,” Aeschi said. “One should instead focus on the present problems.”
And meanwhile in cities and cantons…
The premise of the SVP initiative is that uncontrolled immigration from the EU and EFTA (Norway, Iceland, and Liechtensein) will overburden Switzerland’s (that is, cantons’ and cities’) infrastructure, including housing, public transport, health system, and schools.
In a press release on May 11th, the Union of Swiss Cities said municipalities, along with cantons, “prefer to manage [population] growth rather than cap it.”
The organisation pointed out that its members “demonstrate that diverse solutions, closely aligned with everyday realities, can manage immigration and growth in ways that improve quality of life. Conversely, a rigid population cap would limit the scope of action for public authorities and create more problems than it solves.”
Concretely, to prevent key infrastructure from being overwhelmed, the Union is ready to “improve mobility and combat congestion, provide enough housing without fragmenting the territory, and develop good infrastructure.”
