Kotak Inst Eqt on Dixon
Buy, TP Rs 15200
Q4 came in 22% ahead of modest expectation, driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics segment and higher ASP in the mobile segment due to a memory price increase.
For FY2027, company has guided for flat volumes (ex-Vivo; ~33 mn) due to weak industry demand and display assembly commissioning by 4QFY27E (two-quarter delay), both of which are negative.
On other hand, management indicated that Vivo deal is near closure & mobile PLI 2.0 is likely to be announced soon
Lower estimate by 7-13% for FY2027/28E, factoring in a one-quarter lag in the Vivo JV’s contribution and flat smartphone volumes and a delay in entry into display fab.
CLSA on Dixon
Hold, TP cut to Rs 10,400 from Rs12,100
Dixon’s near‑term earnings are vulnerable to a sustained escalation in global memory prices, while visibility on medium-term growth remains weak as market share in smartphones peaks
4QFY26 results were largely in line with muted expectations, with revenue up 2% YoY and Ebitda down 8%
Co has guided for flat smartphone sales YoY (organic) in FY27, which believe is optimistic
Over medium term, it expects exports and new growth avenues to sustain momentum
Jefferies on Dixon
Hold, TP Rs 10,280 vs Rs10,330
Despite 35% fall in 6M, Dixon trades at 51x FY27e PE, above many EMS peers.
Mar26-Q EBITDA (in-line with JEFe) declined by -8%YoY.
Sales growth decelerated sharply (+2%YoY in H2FY26 vs +53% in H1) dragged by softer consumer sentiment, amid surge in memory prices (affordability hit).
Vivo JV PN3 approval awaited.
Ex-Vivo, weak outlook for domestic smartphones at 32mn in FY27e (almost flat YoY)
HSBC on Dixon
Hold TP Rs 12000
4Q results were largely in line with consensus estimates, with mobile phone volumes slightly below expectations
With management discussing a multitude of new growth levers, including data centre servers, timely execution is key
Cut FY27 EPSe by c4%, mainly from VIVO JV delay;
MOSL On Dixon
Buy, TP Rs 14600
4Q above estimates, even amid challenging environment.
Mobile volumes were hit by weak demand on account of continued high memory prices.
Going ahead focus will be on
1) smartphone volume traction as demand has gradually started improving,
2) approval for the Vivo JV,
3) PLI 2.0 with a focus on boosting mobile exports,
4) pace of commissioning of the display facility during 2HFY27,
5) volume improvement in exports
Macquarie on Dixon
O-P, TP Rs 15000
4Q saw a slight beat, and FY27 commentary was positive.
Management expects flattish smartphone volumes in FY27, with revenues aided by 12-15% higher realisation.
