If the upcoming votes had been held at the end of April, the “No to 10 Million Switzerland” initiative would have been tied, according to the latest SRG poll run by GFS Bern. Changes to the Civil Service Act would have passed.
On June 14th 2026 Swiss voters will decide on two federal measures: a popular initiative aimed at preventing Switzerland’s population from exceeding 10m, and amendments to the Civil Service Act.
Voting intentions
% of respondents
| Proposal | In favour | Undecided | Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| “No to 10 Million Switzerland” initiative | 47 | 6 | 47 |
| Civil Service Act | 52 | 8 | 40 |
Survey conducted April 20th-May 3rd 2026. Margin of error: ±2.8 percentage points. Source: GFS Bern for SRG SSR.
The popular initiative calls for the resident population to be capped at 10m. The government’s proposed changes to the Civil Service Act are intended to ensure that opting for civil service instead of the military is more tightly restricted. Opponents have forced a referendum on the reforms.
Immigration initiative finely balanced
The “No to 10 Million Switzerland” initiative, also known as the sustainability initiative, enters the campaign evenly split. According to the first SRG poll, 47% of eligible voters would support the measure, while an identical share would reject it.
The divide is largely partisan. Support among backers of the Swiss People’s Party (UDC/SVP) is high, whereas supporters of left-wing parties are strongly opposed. Trust in the Federal Council is also a factor: voters who distrust the government are markedly more likely to back the initiative. Men and middle-aged voters are also more inclined to support it.
The high level of support partly reflects the fact that immigration and population growth have dominated Swiss politics for years. Criticism of migration is “no longer taboo”, says Lukas Golder, a political scientist at GFS Bern.
As a rule, support for initiatives tends to weaken as polling day approaches. Swiss political scientists sometimes describe this as an erosion of support for change: when in doubt, voters tend to reject proposals whose consequences they consider uncertain.
Opponents also appear more firmly committed than supporters. Some 41% say they are definitely against the proposal, compared with 38% who are definitely in favour. A further 6% are fairly opposed, while 9% are fairly supportive.
Civil-service reform narrowly ahead
About seven weeks before the referendum, 52% of eligible voters said they would approve the amendments to the Civil Service Act, while 40% opposed them. Another 8% remained undecided.
Political allegiances again shape opinion. Supporters of the Socialist Party (SP) and the The Green Party strongly oppose the reforms. Supporters of the UDC/SVP, the Liberals (PLR/FDP) and the political centre tend to support them. Voters aligned with the Green Liberal Party (GLP) lean against the proposal.
Notably, sceptics of the government are more supportive of the reforms than voters who trust it, reversing the pattern usually seen with government-backed proposals. Although the “yes” camp currently leads, the margin remains narrow enough for the campaign to shift opinion. Further polarisation along established political lines is likely.
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GFS Bern poll (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now
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