Uncertain outlook: The ‘No to 10 million’ initiative is divisive.
Keystone / Urs Flueeler
Just over a month before the nationwide vote on June 14, the outcome of the ‘No to ten million’ immigration initiative is too close to call. The referendum against the civilian service reform has a narrow majority.
The campaigns are slowly gaining momentum but as things stand, the outcome of the vote on capping the Swiss population at ten million is still open.
“We see a stalemate at all levels,” says Lukas Golder from the gfs.bern institute, which conducted the survey on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC), Swissinfo’s parent company.
The high degree of polarisation is shown by the fact that voter opinion is already entrenched to a large extent. About 79% of respondents indicated a firm intention to vote for or against the proposal. Although certain differences can be observed according to age, gender or income, these are moderate overall, Golder said. Party affiliation is a key indicator.
Those who support the right-wing Swiss People’s Party are practically united behind the initiative, while those on the left are similarly clearly opposed to it. However, it is controversial in the political centre.
The undecided, who currently make up 6%, therefore have an important role to play, as does the ability of the two camps to mobilise. At 50%, the intended voter turnout is above the long-term average of 47.1%.
“Mobilisation is the big issue with this proposal,” says Golder.
The picture is different for Swiss citizens abroad: 55% are against or somewhat against, and the proportion of those (somewhat) in favour is significantly lower than in Switzerland at 38%.
“This is a typical pattern, as the Swiss community abroad tends to see opportunities when it comes to immigration,” says Golder. But here too, the proportion of undecided voters is in the same order of magnitude as in Switzerland.
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When asked about their assessment of whether the initiative will be accepted, a very narrow majority of 51% of respondents believe it will be rejected. The campaign will now gather momentum – an extremely close decision can be expected.
The argument of overloaded Swiss infrastructure suffering from population growth made by the backers of the initiative is the most convincing in the survey. Also significant is the argument that growth needs to be limited in order to protect natural resources.
The most convincing arguments of those opposed to the initiative include bilateral relations with the EU, which should not be jeopardised, i.e. the free movement of people. Also significant is the issue of skilled labour and Switzerland’s prosperity, which would be threatened by a cap on the population.
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It is estimated that both sides will invest a record CHF15 million ($19.25 million) in the campaign – with the opponents spending slightly more. Business associations, trade unions and the left-wing Social Democratic Party are the biggest spenders, while it is mainly the Swiss People’s Party that is financing the yes campaign.
Narrow majority is in favour of civilian service reform
The first poll shows a majority of 52% in favour of the amendment of the civilian service act. The left in particular is against it, which is hardly surprising – it also launched a referendum against the planned amendment to the law.
“However, opinion here is much less stable than with the ten million initiative,” says Martina Mousson from gfs.bern. This proposal is not at the centre of attention.
The Swiss government and a majority of parliamentarians are of the opinion that too many men are doing civilian service instead of military service.
“You would think there was a free choice between the army and civilian service,” said Swiss President Guy Parmelin before the revision of the law. However, in theory civilian service should be the exception and not an alternative.
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According to the survey, the long-term security of the army is the strongest argument in favour of the bill, which provides for higher entry barriers to civilian service.
“The geopolitical context naturally plays a role in the campaign,” says Mousson.
The opposing side abroad is just as strong as the one in Switzerland. In contrast, the (more) in favour side is significantly weaker at 43%. However, at 16%, the proportion of undecided voters is also significantly higher than in Switzerland.
In the case of government proposals, the proportion in favour tends to increase during the campaign, but the starting position remains open. As the lead is limited and opinion formation is not yet very advanced, there may well be shifts in the campaign phase.
The focus is on the mobilisation effect of the ‘No to ten million’ immigration initiative. The dynamics and discussions surrounding this campaign can still influence the further formation of opinion on the proposed reform of the civilian service.
Results of the second SBC poll will be published on June 3.
For the first SBC poll conducted by the research institute gfs.bern, 19,728 voters were interviewed between April 20 and May 3, 2026. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.
Edited by Pauline Turuban/ts. Translated from German by AI/ac/ts
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