BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 13. The Eurasian Fund
for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) expects Kazakhstan’s real
GDP growth to reach 5.2% in 2026, following 6.5% in 2025, Trend reports, citing the
EFSD.
Analysts note that despite the slowdown, growth rates will
remain relatively high, and the positive output gap will
persist.
In 2027-2028, the fund projects real GDP growth in Kazakhstan at
4.3% in 2027 and 4.2% in 2028.
According to the analytics, in the medium term, the slowdown
will be driven by weakening investment momentum and expected fiscal
consolidation. Inflation is expected to decline but will remain
above the target level. Monetary policy is likely to stay
relatively tight in the coming years, with gradual easing as
inflationary pressures subside and the positive output gap
narrows.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth reached 6.5% in 2025. The
National Bank of Kazakhstan expects growth in 2026 to fall within
the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, noting that amid the high base effect of
2025, economic activity is likely to follow a more moderate
trajectory in 2026 and the following years.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised
its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan upward to 4.7%, an
increase of 0.2 percentage points from its September outlook. The
EBRD also projects growth of 4.5% for 2027. The World Bank (WB) has
projected Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2026. For 2027, the
bank anticipates a growth rate of 3.9%.
The United Nations expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 4.6% in
2026, while ING Group forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 5% for
2026. For 2027, ING anticipates slightly slower growth, projecting
an overall rate of around 4.5%.
