RBI MPC Meet April 8, 2026 Live: RBI holds rates unchanged at 5.25%; projects FY27 GDP at 6.9%

RBI Guv on GDP growth projection: Do not see it as too optimistic, but we have flagged the downside risks

RBI on stress due to supply chain disruption: Not seeing any systemic risk as of now

It is seen as not relevant, with increased compliance: RBI Dy Guv Swaminathan on the decision to dispense with the requirement to maintain an Investment Fluctuation Reserve

RBI Guv on energy price: Crude price taken at $85/bbl to arrive at inflation projection, next year $75/bbl

RBI Guv on developments at HDFC Bank

“There were no material concerns seen during our supervision, scrutiny of minutes. We do not see the requirement for additional measures now.”

RBI decides to do away with IFR requirements for banks

RBI decides to do away with IFR requirements for banks

The Reserve Bank on Wednesday decided to dispense with the Investment Fluctuation Reserve (IFR), an additional buffer which banks were required to maintain to hedge against depreciation in the value of investments, as a measure to support capital adequacy of lenders.

RBI Guv on capital adequacy measures for banks: It does not change the calculation of net profit, it only changes the calculation of CRAR

We will continue to have low rates even in the medium term: RBI Guv

RBI Guv on rates: We are in a neutral state — possibilities either way cannot be ruled out

Real rates are now around 2% or so, amid huge uncertainty coming from the supply side: RBI Guv on inflation

RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra on measures taken to support rupee

“We did notice in the last few weeks, there was heightened volatility in the forex markets, positions were built up leading to arbitrage position between NDF and deliverable markets. When there is excessive volatility, excessive building up of positions… not helping in efficient price discovery, such kinds of measures have to be taken. These are not measures that will be there for ever.”

RBI Guv says thought this was the right time to give core inflation projection

“While headline is the target, primary goal for us – the various components of inflation and where they are emanating is important.”

RBI Monetary Policy Committee starts press meet after announcing unchanged repo rate

IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapur on RBI’s rate decision

“The status quo on the policy rate and continuation of a Neutral stance in the MPC meeting are along the expected lines. The baseline assessment of headline and core inflation, with a balance of risks to the upside, suggests there is space for at least 50 bps repo rate hike over the next 12 months, while continuing with a Neutral stance. The actual outturn of inflation, which, among other things, will depend upon the pass-through of the oil price shock to the end-consumers, will guide the policy rate trajectory ahead. RBI’s real GDP growth forecast of 6.9%, with risks to the downside, accounts for the resilience of the momentum driven by domestic drivers, even as external sector drag is likely to weigh on growth.”

RBI raises FY27 GDP projection to 6.9%, retail inflation estimate to 4.6%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its GDP growth projection for FY27 to 6.9 per cent from the earlier 6.7 per cent. It also raised the inflation projections for FY27 to 4.6 per cent from the earlier 4.2 per cent.

RBI raises FY27 GDP projection to 6.9%, retail inflation estimate to 4.6%

The RBI upped its GDP growth projection for FY27 slightly to 6.9 per cent from the earlier 6.7 per cent. It also raised the inflation projections for FY27 to 4.6 per cent from the earlier 4.2 per cent.

Repo rate hold reinforces stability, sustaining real estate momentum, says Shishir Baijal, International Partner, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India

The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% reinforces a sense of stability at a time when global economic conditions remain uncertain. In the face of external pressures such as geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, and currency movements, maintaining the status quo provides much-needed predictability to the broader economy.

For the real estate sector, this continuity in interest rates plays a crucial role in sustaining momentum. Stable borrowing costs help preserve affordability for homebuyers while also enabling developers to plan with greater confidence. In an environment where sentiment can be easily influenced by macroeconomic signals, the absence of rate volatility acts as a reassuring factor for the market. With financing costs remaining steady, prospective buyers are better positioned to evaluate and commit to long-term investments such as homeownership.

Overall, the RBI’s decision supports a balanced environment for the real estate sector, helping maintain demand traction and providing the confidence needed for continued market activity in the near term.

Muthoot Microfin CEO Sadaf Sayeed on the RBI’s rate pause decision

“By holding rates steady and maintaining a neutral stance, the RBI has reinforced confidence in the resilience of the economy. This calibrated approach ensures stability today while preserving flexibility to respond to evolving global and domestic dynamics.”

RBI raises its GDP growth projection for FY27 slightly to 6.9% from the earlier 6.7%

It also raised the inflation projections for FY27 to 4.6% from the earlier 4.2%.

We shall remain vigilant of the evolving conditions and prioritse the best interest of the economy, RBI Guv says

Allow non-bank entities in the term money market, says RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra

We are enhancing borrowing limits of standalone primary dealers: Guv Malhotra

Proposed to dispense with the requirement to maintain Invesgtment Fluctuaiton Reseve: RBI Guv

Conolidation exercise for supervisory instructions completed, Guv says

We revised and rationalised matters that require the attention of Banks’ boards: RBI Guv

Bank credit growth maintained upward trajectory, RBI Guv says

System level parameters of NBFCs are sound, credit from all sources grew at 14.3%: RBI Guv

Parameters related to CAR, Asset Quality and profitability of Banks remain healthy, RBI Guv Malhotra says

Going head, we will continue to be proactive and preemptive in liquidity management: RBI Guv

RBI Guv says short term money market trades remained elevated

G-Sec yields remianed largely range-bound, Guv says

We continue to contain excessive volaitlity in the currency: Guv

System liquidity under LAF was at an average daily surplus of ₹2.30 lakh crore since the last meeting.

No specific target for rupee value: RBI Guv

Intervention aimed at smoothening volatility: RBI Guv

Exchange rate policy is unchanged: RBI Guv

MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25%

MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25%

Policy stance to continue at “neutral”

Rupee depreciated more than average: Guv

Despite stronger macro econ the Indian rupee has depreciated more last year than in previous years.

Forex reserves comfortable: RBI Guv

Forex reserves at $697 bn: Guv

Flows under ECB and non-resident deposits moderated: RBI Guv

India remains attractive for greenfield projects: RBI Guv

External finacing – gross FDI saw 20% growth

Merchandise imports grew 22%: Guv

Merchandise export down 0.2% year-on-year: Guv

Global trade expected to slow down: RBI Guv

FY27 CPI forecast at 4.6%; Q2 at 4.4%, Q3 at 5.2%, Q4 at 4.7%

Core inflation projected at 5.4%: RBI Guv

Food price outlook remains confortable with robust rabi crop: Guv

Recent spikes in energy prices have emerged as a risk to inflation, RBI Guv says

FY27 Q1 GDP at 6.8%, Q2 6.7%, Q3 7%, Q4 7.2%

Services exports to remain resilient: RBI Guv

FY27 GDP forecast at 6.9%

Merchandise exports may benefit from the FTAs, Guv says

While the government thrust on infra spending continues, revival in private capex is seen sustaining on higher capacity utilisation, demand for credit: Guv

Private consumption to be supported by discretionary spending: RBI Guv

Govt focus on manufacturing should support growth: RBI Guv

Agriculture prospects supported by reservoir levels: Guv

RBI Guv says sustained momentum in services, impact of GST rationalisation and healthy balance sheets will continue ot suppor economic activity

Govt has ensured supply for critical sectors amid West Asia crisis: Guv

FY26 GDP at 7.6%: RBI Guv

Supply shock can tranform into demand shock in the medium term: Guv

Weaker global growth prospects may weaken external demand and lower remittances: Guv

Safe haven demand could impact liquidity, Guv says

Uncertainty could boost safe haven demand: RBI Guv

Elevated crude oil price could increase imported inflation, widen fiscal deficit: Guv

Elevated crude oil prices impact inflation: RBI Guv

Economy is confronted with a supply shock: RBI Guv

It’s prudent to wait and watch: RBI Guv

MPC opines that intensity, duration of conflict and damage to energy infra are risks to growth outlook

Damage to energy infrastructure will impact growth: RBI Guv

RBI Guv says fundamentals of the economy on stronger footing

Higher inputs costs associated with energy costs constrain availablity of key inputs: RBI Guv

West Asia conflict is likely to impede growth: RBI Guv

Growth supported by private consumption: RBI Guv

Risks of second round effects render future inflation projection uncertain, he says

RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra says inflation projection uncertain

Upside risk to inflation outlook due to energy prices and weather phenomenon have increased: RBI Guv

Headline inflation remains unchanged, below the target but outside influences on inflation have increased: RBI Guv

RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra says upside risk in inflation remains

RBI MPC decided to continue with natural stance: Guv

Liquid facility at 5.25%: RBI Guv

MPC decided to keep repo rates unchanged: RBI Guv

Sovereign bond yields have hardened across major economies: RBI Guv

Equity registered broad based correction: RBI Guv

Gold, metal prices, have moderated: RBI Guv

Shortage of inputs for various industries pushed inflation cocern: RBI Guv

Fundamentals of Indian econ are on stronger footing in the current juncture than in previous episodes: RBI Guv

Sharp rise in energy price and inputs costs has stoked inflation fears: RBI Guv

Global growth faces increasing downside risks, saw a reduction in energy prices today: RBI Guv

Before West Asia, Indian economy was faring good, says Malhotra

Global economy facing unprecedented challenges: RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra

RBI Guv Sanjay Malhotra speaks

Has flexible inflation targeting worked?

Has flexible inflation targeting worked?

The FIT framework has had less influence on limiting food inflation and its volatility

Inflation targeting range to be unchanged for 5-year period starting April 1

Inflation targeting range to be unchanged for 5 yr period starting April 1

India’s inflation target range remains unchanged at 4% for five years, effective April 1, 2026, ensuring monetary policy stability.

Inflation projections

The Reserve Bank of India had earlier projected strong growth for India, but evolving global conditions — especially rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions — may lead to revisions in growth and inflation forecasts.

Most RBI rate actions happened during periods of neutral stance over past decade: SBI Report

Most RBI rate actions happened during periods of neutral stance over past decade: SBI Report

Most of the repo rate actions taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over the past decade occurred during periods when the monetary policy stance was neutral or unspecified, according to a report by State Bank of India.

West Asia conflict poses near-term challenges to Indian economy: RBI MPC member

Conflict in the West Asia poses some immediate-term challenges for the Indian economy but is unlikely to dent long-term economic growth momentum, an external member of the RBI’s rate-setting panel has said.

Going forward, there is a need for fiscal and monetary policies to work in a coordinated manner to push GDP growth to a higher trajectory, Nagesh Kumar has said.

In the present scenario, a hike in oil prices, exports disruptions and impact on remittances have been identified as the immediate challenges on the growth front, he said.Read more here

Expectations from MPC

Expectations from MPC

Recourse to unconventional tools, a possibility

Outlook on rates and forecasts

Sonal Badhan, Economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that the RBI is likely to announce its full-year growth and inflation forecasts, taking into account the impact of the war on India.

“RBI will remain vigilant and hold rates steady for the time being, without changing its stance from neutral. We also believe this to be the end of the rate cut cycle. Further, if oil prices remain above US$ 100/barrel for consistently long period of time and inflation breaches the upper tolerance band of RBI (6%), then there might be a chance of rate hike by the central bank towards the end of FY27,” she said.

Growth concerns amid geopolitical tensions

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, observed that, given the uncertain geopolitical scenario, the MPC is expected to maintain a pause at its next meeting and wait and watch how the war unfolds going forward.

“While there are concerns around inflation, but it (MPC) will also be quite concerned about the growth aspect going forward…On the inflation front, I see pass-through being partial.

“But if the war is prolonged, there could be severe repercussions for growth and the MPC will be concerned about that. I don’t think RBI will be in a hurry to increase the rates because even in an extreme case scenario we are projecting inflation a little above 6 per cent,” she said.

‘With rising energy prices and the looming threat of inflation amidst uncertainty, the MPC has a difficult task on its hands’

A severe test for monetary policy

With rising energy prices and the looming threat of inflation amidst uncertainty, the MPC has a difficult task on its hands

RBI expected to hold rates steady in first policy since West Asia conflict: SBI Report

RBI expected to hold rates steady in first policy since West Asia conflict: SBI Report

RBI is likely to maintain steady rates amid global uncertainty from the West Asia conflict, warns SBI Research report.

What happened in 2025–2026?

• Feb 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance
• Apr 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance
• Jun 2025 – 50 bps rate cut, neutral stance
• Aug 2025 – no rate cut, neutral stance
• Oct 2025 – no rate cut, neutral stance
• Dec 2025 – 25 bps rate cut, neutral stance
• Feb 2026 – no rate cut, neutral stance

Economists see RBI holding rates in April policy review on inflation fears amid West Asia crisis

Economists see RBI holding rates in April policy review on inflation fears amid West Asia crisis

The central bank has so far reduced the repo rate by 1.25% since last February, as the cool down in inflation offered it the space to work towards further boosting growth

Announcement time

The bi-monthly MPC meeting is scheduled from April 6 to April 8, 2026. The policy outcome will be announced at 10:00 a.m . IST on April 8, followed by a press conference by Governor Malhotra later in the day.

Recent policy moves and stance

The MPC last cut the repo rate (the interest rate at which RBI provides funds to Banks) from 5.50 per cent to 5.25 per cent in its December 2025 meeting. In the subsequent meeting, the committee stood pat on the rate. The stance was last changed in June 2025 from accommodative to neutral.

RBI may keep repo rate unchanged as inflation risks persist

RBI MPC likely to hold repo rate amid inflation and global growth concerns

RBI MPC likely to hold repo rate in April meeting, balancing inflation risks from high oil prices with growth concerns amid global tensions.

MPC committee may favour a pause in repo rate amid US-Iran war

Concerns about growth slowing due to the ripple effects of the war, which has entered its second month, could prompt the six-member committee to favour a pause in the repo rate at their first meeting of FY27. 

Economists see limited inflation pass-through

Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare opined that to the extent the ongoing energy shock does not translate into CPI inflation breaching the target (4% +/- 2%) durably, the MPC is unlikely to resort to rate hike(s).

“As long as pump prices stay unchanged, we expect the energy shock pass-through to CPI to stay muted, ensuring that inflation outcome is aligned to the 4% target. Accordingly, we expect the RBI MPC to stay on hold through 2026,” they said in a note.

RBI may keep repo rate unchanged as inflation risks persist

The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged in its upcoming meeting, preferring to remain vigilant as inflationary pressures. could arise due to high global energy prices and supply chain disruption amid the ongoing West Asia war.

RBI MPC Meet April 2026: Date, time, expectations & live details.

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RBI MPC Meet April 2026: Date, Time, When & Where, Expectations & live details

RBI MPC Meeting April 2026: The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra is chairing his second Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 8, 2026. Follow Businessline for live Updates tomorrow.

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