In February 2026, Thai exports grew by 9.9% year-on-year, reaching US$29.43 billion (912.56 billion baht). This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion, primarily driven by the electronics and electrical appliances sectors, which have benefited from the global AI boom.
Despite this growth and a strong performance in the first two months of the year, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has issued a cautious outlook, warning that full-year exports could contract by as much as 3% due to rising freight costs, volatile energy prices, and a strengthening baht.
Key Takeaways
- Top Performers:
- Industrial: Computers and components (+49.8%), telephone equipment (+217.7%), and radio/TV transmitters (+251.5%).
- Agricultural/Food: Fresh fruits (+62.3%), processed chicken (+94%), and fats/oils (+271.1%).
- Major Markets: Shipments to the US surged by 40.5%, while exports to the EU (+20.6%) and ASEAN (+17.8%) also saw double-digit growth.
- Trade Balance: Despite export growth, imports rose sharply by 31.8% to US$32.27 billion, resulting in a US$2.83 billion trade deficit for the month.
- Industrial product exports rose by 13.3%, led by significant surges in telephone equipment (217.7%), computer components (49.8%), and radio/television transmitters (251.5%).
- The agricultural and agro-industrial sectors saw a 5.7% decline, marking a second month of contraction, though high-potential items like processed chicken and fresh fruits recorded substantial gains.
- Key growth drivers include the global shift toward AI technology and supply-chain diversification, while pressure factors include high freight costs and price competition in agricultural commodities like rice.
Export growth was strongest in major markets such as the United States (40.5%) and the European Union (20.6%), while shipments to Russia and the CLMV region (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam) declined.
Looking forward, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains cautious. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) warns of potential contractions due to rising freight costs, energy price volatility, and currency appreciation. The full-year forecast ranges from a best-case growth of 1.1% to a worst-case contraction of 3%, depending on how these global economic pressures evolve.
