Opinion formation varies across the four proposals to be voted on 8 March. It is most advanced for the initiative targeting SRG SSR, where 85% of likely voters say they have made up their minds. More than two-thirds also report firm positions on the cash initiative, the climate fund initiative and individual taxation. By contrast, views remain more fluid on the counter-proposal to the cash initiative: only 55% express a settled intention.
Turnout is currently projected at 48%, close to the long-term average of 47.1% recorded between 2011 and 2024.
Cash initiative: still ahead, but losing ground
The cash initiative retains majority support, though momentum is shifting. Some 61% of likely voters would approve it (down four points), compared with 36% opposed. The direct counter-proposal performs even more strongly, with 70% approval (up three points). In the tie-breaker question, 54% prefer the counter-proposal to 41% for the initiative.
Support for the initiative rests largely on arguments about personal freedom. Yet concerns about legal imprecision and the adequacy of the counter-proposal appear to be gaining traction. The Swiss People’s Party remains firmly in the “yes” camp, while opposition outside it is consolidating. Support is slipping among older voters and in urban areas. Overall, the balance is tilting modestly towards the counter-proposal.
SRG initiative: narrow rejection likely
The proposal affecting SRG SSR would currently be rejected, though the race remains tight. Some 54% would vote against it and 44% in favour. Yet 54% of respondents expect it to pass, suggesting uncertainty about the final outcome.
Opinion is highly polarised along party lines. The SVP backs the proposal; the Social Democratic Party of Switzerland, Green Party of Switzerland, Green Liberal Party of Switzerland and centrist parties oppose it, as does most of the The Liberals (Switzerland). Trust in government also shapes views: sceptics tend to favour the initiative; those with higher institutional trust lean against it. Arguments about the broadcaster’s role in information provision and democratic cohesion appear more persuasive than calls for reform. For now, the “no” camp holds a slight advantage.
Climate fund initiative: clear rejection
The climate fund proposal faces a steeper climb. Some 65% would reject it and 31% approve it, with opposition rising since the first survey wave. A large majority expect it to fail.
Support is concentrated among left-wing and green voters. The Greens and Social Democrats back it; the GLP, Centre, FDP and SVP largely oppose it, leaving the initiative without support from the political centre. Fiscal concerns dominate the debate, with many voters judging the investment plans too costly or unnecessary given existing climate instruments. Women and French-speaking voters are somewhat more receptive, but opposition prevails across all groups.
Individual taxation: support softening
The proposal to introduce individual taxation would narrowly pass if voted on today, with 52% in favour and 44% opposed. But support has fallen sharply—down 12 percentage points since the first survey.
Opinion formation is moderately advanced, with 68% expressing a firm stance. Party alignments are sharpening. The SVP and centrist voters have shifted markedly towards rejection, while the Greens and Social Democrats remain largely supportive. Advocates emphasise gender equality and work incentives; critics warn of administrative burdens and higher costs. What began with broad backing has become more contested. The outcome remains uncertain.
Participation: average overall, uneven mobilisation
Turnout is projected at 48%, close to the historical norm. Beneath that headline figure lie notable shifts. Younger voters (18–39) show stronger mobilisation than in the first wave, though they still trail older groups. Participation remains high among 40–64-year-olds and slips slightly among those over 65. Women now report higher intended turnout than men.
Supporters of the Greens, the Social Democrats and the GLP appear especially mobilised. Participation is declining among SVP and centrist voters. Trust in government correlates strongly with turnout: those who trust institutions are more likely to vote. Geographically, mobilisation is rising in urban areas and falling in rural ones.
Methodology
The findings come from the second SRG trend survey conducted by the research institute gfs.bern between 11 and 19 February 2026. A total of 11,754 voters across Switzerland were interviewed using a mixed methodology (telephone, online and mail). The margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
More on this:
Gfs.bern poll (in English)
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