The two sides agreed to extend indirect negotiations into next week but traders grew skeptical that an agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration and Iran was possible.
“The likelihood Iran is going to agree to what the Trump administration wants doesn’t seem possible,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “There’s got to be an endgame to this and the market seems to think that’s where we are headed.”
OIL BENCHMARKS ON TRACK FOR WEEKLY GAINS
The Brent and WTI benchmarks were trading at their highest since July and August, respectively, and were poised to register weekly gains well above 1%.
“Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM. “It is completely driven by the outcome of the Iranian nuclear talks and possible military action the U.S. might take against Iran.” The United States and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday after Trump ordered a military buildup in the region.
Oil prices gained more than a dollar a barrel during the talks, on media reports indicating that discussions had stalled over U.S. insistence on zero enrichment of uranium by Iran. However, prices eased after the Omani mediator said the two sides had made progress. They plan to resume negotiations with technical-level discussions scheduled next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said on X.”We think the latest round of talks offers some hope on chances of a peaceful resolution, but military strikes are in no way out of the equation,” said DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar. Trump said on February 19 that Iran must make a deal over its nuclear programme within 10 to 15 days or “really bad things” will happen.
Geopolitical risk premiums of $8 to $10 a barrel have been built into oil prices on fears that a conflict will disrupt Middle East supply through the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of global oil supply passes, Sarkar said. To cushion the impact from a possible strike, UAE oil producer Abu Dhabi is set to export more of its flagship Murban crude in April, two trade sources said on Friday. Earlier this week, other sources said Saudi Arabia would also increase oil production. Additionally, Saudi Arabia may raise its April crude price to Asia for the first time in five months due to higher demand from India to replace Russian supplies, potentially raising it by about $1 a barrel. Producer group OPEC+, meanwhile, is likely to consider raising oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April at its March 1 meeting, sources said, after suspending production increases in the first quarter. (Reporting by Erwin Seba, Anna Hirtenstein, Florence Tan and Nicole Jao; Editing by Rod Nickel)
