Caleb Williams proved he could quarterback a playoff team in 2025, leading the Chicago Bears to an NFC North title and a divisional round appearance. Now, FOX Sports’ Colin Cowherd believes that the Bears quarterback can take the next step in 2026 and become the league’s top quarterback, but maybe not for the reason you’d think.
On FS1’s “The Herd,” Cowherd explained that while Williams has the talent to be an elite quarterback, his rookie contract salary also has to be considered when you rank the quarterbacks you want the most for the 2026 season.
“You’ve got to count everything with a quarterback, including the cost,” Cowherd said. “Not including what a quarterback costs, there’s a reason the Bills have no Pro Bowlers on defense and the Bears have a stacked roster — it’s because Caleb Williams costs $10 million per year. It’s a 3.5% cap hit. Lamar Jackson’s going to be a 25% cap hit.
“I don’t care about résumé. I’m not into past celebrations or past failures. I’m into projecting 2026 Labor Day Weekend. Is Caleb the best quarterback in the league? Because discussing quarterbacks without acknowledging the cost is like doing your family budget when you sit down with your wife and not counting the Maserati you bought last year without asking her.”
To Cowherd’s point, Williams will be one of the lesser-paid starting quarterbacks in 2026. His $10.8 million salary cap hit is the 25th among all quarterbacks for next season, per Over The Cap. That’s a pretty good salary for a quarterback who threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go with 388 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns this season.
And adding to Cowherd’s point, the teams that have won the Super Bowl in recent years have had a quarterback with a relatively smaller cap hit. Sam Darnold’s cap number was 20th among quarterbacks in the league this past season as he led the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl title. Jalen Hurts‘ cap hit was 16th among quarterbacks when the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl title in 2024. There have only been three instances where a quarterback with one of the five largest cap hits at the position has won the Super Bowl since 2010. Patrick Mahomes accounted for two of those instances (2022, 2023) and Eli Manning was the third (2011).
Cowherd also believes that Williams has the talent to prove he’s the league’s best quarterback as early as next season.
“Only one quarterback had more big-time throws (20-plus yard throws) than Caleb Williams. It wasn’t Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson,” Cowherd said. “Caleb Williams has the lowest interception rate since he entered the league, lower than Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. He’s now officially the fastest quarterback on clock, better than Lamar, faster than Josh Allen. He also had the longest completion in the league last year.
“So, if you count everything, and you have to count cost, Drake Maye, Bo Nix and Caleb Williams have really good rosters, and the Buffalo Bills don’t have a Pro Bowler [on defense]. The Chiefs‘ O-line and defense stink.”
Cowherd acknowledged that Williams isn’t perfect. His 90.1 passer rating was 22nd among all eligible quarterbacks this past season. His 58.1 completion percentage ranked 34th among eligible quarterbacks, which is considered to be relatively poor for a passer in this day and age. So, Williams definitely has some work to do.
But Cowherd believes that Williams has proven he’s good enough in the key areas that you have to consider him as a candidate to be the NFL’s best quarterback in 2026 when you add it all up.
“He never gets hurt and doesn’t throw interceptions. That’s just the stuff on the edges,” Cowherd said. “Now, he throws the longest ball, is the fastest quarterback and has the lowest interception rate. He also counts for just 3.5% against the cap. Now, if he gets rid of the negative plays, like he did last year, is he next year, all things considered, the best quarterback in the league?”
