All eyes in the world of college basketball will be on the Breslin Center on Friday night, as the Michigan State Spartans host and renew their rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines on FOX at 8 p.m. ET.
Not only are bragging rights on the line, but this showdown will go a long way in determining who ultimately wins the Big Ten regular-season title. Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska all enter this weekend with identical 9-1 records in league play.
In Friday’s matchup, Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 146.5.
Despite the gaudy record, the Wolverines are not in great form. They defeated USC on Jan. 2 but in the seven games since, they have failed to cover the point spread. In those seven games, they lost to Wisconsin as 18-point favorites and narrowly escaped against Penn State, winning by just two as 24-point favorites.
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In their most recent game, the Wolverines handed Nebraska its first loss of the season but did not cover as 12-point favorites. In that game, Nebraska was missing two key players and still led by as many as 11 points, while only shooting 3-of-4 from the foul line, as opposed to Michigan, who went 19-of-23.
Back in November, Michigan notched perhaps the most impressive win any team will record the entire season, defeating sixth-ranked Gonzaga by 40 points on a neutral court. UM also had a 10-game stretch where its lowest margin of victory was 18 points and simply demolished whoever the opponent was. However, that dominant version of that squad has not been seen in nearly a month.
Granted, Michigan State is coming into this game off a lackluster performance as well, as the Spartans needed a furious rally of their own to defeat Rutgers in overtime on Tuesday night. But in what is the best game of the weekend, I can only look to the home team and to fade the Wolverines.
Michigan enjoyed a massive free throw disparity in its favor in the team’s last win over Nebraska, and I would expect Tom Izzo and the home Spartans to get a more favorable whistle on Friday night in their home gym.
Getting Izzo as a home underdog is a rare opportunity and one I will pounce on here.
PICK: Michigan State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright
