The European Union and the United States have sketched out a “prosperity framework” for Ukraine designed to provide Kyiv with financial assurances along with security guarantees to stabilize Ukraine after the war with Russia ends.
The 18-page document, seen by RFE/RL, says that while $800 billion could be mobilized for Ukraine through 2040, the immediate aim is to meet the country’s need for some $500 billion in reconstruction over the next decade.
The EU, the United States and international financial institutions — including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — would participate in the initial phase, providing $317 billion for reconstruction, $57 billion for private housing, and some $126 billion for the construction of both public and private buildings.
Compensation to victims would be dealt with separately through a mechanism targeting Russia’s frozen assets in the West.
Speaking last week as the framework was being discussed at an informal meeting of members of the European Council, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that it “looks at how we can boost the prosperity of Ukraine at the moment we achieve a peaceful cease-fire.”
“We are talking about a single document representing the collective vision of the Ukrainians, Americans, and Europe for Ukraine’s post-war future,” she said.
The $800 billion figure comes from the war-torn country’s “ambition to identify further investment opportunities that will enable its economy to grow and thrive, double its GDP, raise its productivity, and significantly improve Ukrainians’ quality of life,” according to the document.
Terms And Conditions For Ukraine
Much of the plan depends on the war ending soon. But there are other conditions.
Rapid progress toward EU accession is highlighted as a must. It is noted that the GDPs of Central and Eastern European economies that joined the club in 2004 and 2007 nearly tripled since then and that this trick can be repeated with Kyiv.
While Ukraine hopes to join the club before the end of the decade, Hungary has blocked the start of accession talks for nearly two years over what Budapest sees as Ukrainian discrimination of the Hungarian-speaking minority in the country — a spat that has now prompted leader Viktor Orban to recently state that no Hungarian parliament “in 100 years” will be ready to green-light Ukrainian EU membership.
But this is not the only condition set out in the paper. “Restoring Ukraine’s access to sovereign debt markets is a critical unlock,” it says, adding that this would involve “enabling banks to refocus on lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and thereby stimulating job creation and the overall economy.”
It also mentions the need for the country to “re-establish its standing with the global investor community,” which includes expanded digital infrastructure and strengthening the independence of the judiciary and property rights in the country.
But where this $800 billion come from?
There are some concrete pledges of cash. The European Commission has proposed earmarking $116 billion for Ukraine in the next multiannual EU budget, which should start in 2028 and run through 2034. But all EU member states need to agree on this in long-winded negotiations over the next 18 months, and it’s not clear if this number will remain given many EU capitals are keen to reduce EU budget expenditures in general.
There is no figure yet for Washington’s expected contribution. The paper notes simply that “the United States will endeavor to raise significant additional capital (public and private, grants, equity and debt) to be invested transparently and effectively in Ukraine.”
The authors also say that the return of 2.1 million migrants within the first two years of the end of the war would lead to a productivity leap of 5 percent and a potential rise in GDP per capita growth.
The document also notes that additional public capital is expected to come from “concessional loans from international financial institutions, other grants, and philanthropies” and that Ukraine “may consider the sale of mineral rights as another means to introduce private capital into Ukraine, as envisioned by the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund.”
Investing In Ukraine’s Future
However, the framework as it stands now gives no specific numbers. The appendix states while Ukraine’s “minerals sector offers substantial investment opportunities,” it cautions that “challenges persist, including longer lead times for lithium projects, the need to align with global standards, and the requirement for updated technological and geological data to support new greenfield initiatives.”
Apart from the country’s mineral sectors, Brussels and Washington are eyeing a number of additional fields of investment. One is the over 3,000 state-owned enterprises that could be privatized — the paper notes such a move is “necessary to open up key sectors of the economy to private investment, remove inefficiencies, and allow for innovation and investments.”
The reconstruction of over 25,000 kilometers of roads is also mentioned, as is an upgrade of the Chornomorsk port southwest of Odesa.
In the energy sector, six new nuclear reactors in Khmelnitsky and Rivne could be constructed. The text also mentions that “the United States, and potentially US companies, will aim to partner with Ukraine through co-investment to restore, grow, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities.”
