The National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) is guiding for a year of high operational throughput in 2026-27, even as it prepares for a potential revenue squeeze in its chemicals segment. In a detailed discussion with Business Today, Brijendra Pratap Singh, CMD, NALCO, noted that the company expects to outperform its planned production targets for both metals and chemicals business in the coming fiscal. The state-run miner
NALCO is currently tracking ahead of its internal alumina roadmap by approximately 90,000 tonnes, leading to an expectation that total alumina production could touch 23 lakh tonnes by the end of the period. Similarly, the metals segment is projected to reach 4.70 lakh tonnes, assuming the current pace of production is maintained.
However, these volume projections come at a time when global market dynamics are shifting against alumina producers. Singh highlighted that the company anticipates a sequential decline in alumina prices throughout 2026, with realizations expected to remain in the lower band of $320 to $340 per tonne. This softening is primarily due to a global surplus of alumina, exacerbated by a notable reduction in global smelting capacity.
Singh pointed to structural shifts such as China capping its smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes and the shutdown of the Mozal smelter as key factors that have reduced global demand. Consequently, NALCO expects its chemicals business to remain relatively weak through 2026 as these low-price levels persist.
This cautious outlook on pricing underscores a long-standing challenge for NALCO, which has historically relied on its integrated model to cushion against commodity cycles. In the past, under former CMD Sridhar Patra, the company heavily emphasized bauxite and coal securitisation to maintain its status as a low-cost producer. By continuing this focus on techno-economic parameters, such as lowering the consumption of caustic soda and coal tar pitch, Singh expects the company can mitigate some of the impact from falling alumina prices. The strategy remains to push for higher volumes to maintain overall financial stability while the global market recalibrates.
Looking beyond traditional operations, NALCO is also guiding for significant progress in its critical minerals venture via KABIL. Singh shared that invasive exploration is expected to begin in Argentina around January, with the company remaining positive about the possibility of commercial mining by next year. There is also an expectation that Indian majors like ONGC Videsh and Coal India may join NALCO in investing in additional Argentinian blocks. While these plans are currently in the due diligence and exploration stages, they represent NALCO’s intent to diversify into the lithium and cobalt supply chains, providing a potential long-term hedge against the volatility of the aluminium and alumina markets.
