Vice President JD Vance gave a stark outlook on the reality of the Russia-Ukraine war, saying he doesn’t have “confidence” there will be a peaceful solution to the gruesome conflict reaching its fourth year.
“We’re going to keep on trying to negotiate. And I think that we’ve made progress, but sitting here today, I wouldn’t say with confidence that we’re going to get to a peaceful resolution,” the vice president said in an Unheard interview published Monday.
“I think there’s a good chance we will, I think there’s a good chance we won’t.”
The remark is one of the most pessimistic assessments of the peace prospects to date from a high-ranking U.S. official, far more sober than some others in the administration. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday he sees the solution being a “ways off,” President Donald Trump and peace envoy Steve Witkoff — who has been leading the talks — have expressed more optimism.
Witkoff, coming out of his talks with the Ukrainians and Russians this weekend in Miami, called both meetings “constructive and productive” without offering concrete breakthroughs in the talks. He stressed that negotiations will continue, and that Russia and Ukraine are “committed” to achieving peace.
Vance’s comments come less than a week after two American officials, briefing reporters, said they felt “really good” about the progress they’d made. Trump, one week ago, said, “we’re closer now than we have been, ever.”
But the thorniest issues have never been resolved, including who will control the Donbas region. Vance pointed to other issues stalling negotiations such as control of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the fate of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the ethnic Ukrainians in Russia-controlled areas, and how reconstruction would be carried out throughout Ukraine to rebuild the war-torn country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered to put the 15 percent of the Donbas that Ukrainians still control under a “free economic zone” not controlled by either side, but Russia has maintained that it desires to take all of the remaining territory.
The Ukrainians see Russian control of Donbas as a “major security problem,” Vance said, but argued the Ukrainian military would likely “lose” the territory regardless if the fighting persists.
“So that territorial concession is a significant hold-up in the negotiations — that terrible territorial concession, I should say,” Vance added, signifying that he views the area as a likely “concession” for Ukraine in the long run.
Losing the remaining part of the Donbas region would be a hit for Ukraine, which has been defending it throughout the war. The area has strategic weapons set up to protect the rest of Ukraine from Russian invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been firm in his maximalist requirements of solving the “root causes” of the war, with requirements including Ukraine never joining NATO, elections in Ukraine to replace Zelenskyy and having Russian as a protected language within Ukraine.
Zelenskyy’s primary focus is getting robust security guarantees from the West to protect Ukraine in the event of another Russian offensive. The U.S. has offered Ukraine Article-5 like guarantees that are in the NATO charter, but the Kremlin has said it would not accept Western troops within Ukraine as a part of the peace deal.
The White House pointed to Witkoff’s latest remarks about the “productive” meetings as the latest development in the talks. Vance’s team did not give further remarks than he gave in the interview.
