ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 13. Kazakhstan’s
economy is set to hit the brakes in 2026, with GDP growth
anticipated to take a backseat, easing to around 4.5-5.0%, Trend reports via the
Netherlands-based ING Group.
After a strong performance in 2025, driven largely by oil and
consumption, the moderation in growth comes as fiscal consolidation
measures take hold, including a VAT hike from 12% to 16%. This tax
hike is bound to throw a wrench in the works of consumption, which
has been the bread and butter of economic activity.
According to ING, the slowdown in oil production and a
deceleration in lending growth will further weigh on economic
momentum. Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan’s diverse industrial
sectors, including agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, are
expected to continue contributing to the economy’s resilience,
though at a slower pace than in the previous year.
Earlier the National Bank of Kazakhstan revealed that the
country’s economy is expected to expand 6-6.5% in 2025. As such,
the NBK revised its earlier projection higher due to
faster-than-expected oil production and a recent pickup in
investment and consumer demand, partly ahead of the planned 2026
VAT reform.
For 2026, growth is now forecast at 3.5-4.5%, down from previous
expectations, reflecting the high 2025 base and the dampening
effects of tax and fiscal consolidation measures on domestic
demand. According to the bank, economic expansion is projected to
reach 4-5% in 2027, supported by continued investment growth,
moderate consumer demand, and higher oil output. The central bank
upheld its foundational crude oil price projection at $60 per
barrel of Brent throughout the predictive timeframe.
