College football bowl season is about one thing: motivation.
How motivated are teams to play in these exhibition games? You have to target the correct games and situations to have a chance to win your wagers on bowl games.
With that in mind, here’s what I’m on currently.
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TUESDAY, DEC. 23
Toledo underachieved this season. The Rockets were pegged to win 8.5 games and they won just eight. They finished 6-2 in the MAC behind their outstanding defense. They allowed just three points in three of their last four games. The other game was just nine points allowed against Ball State. All four of these contests featured teams ranked 109, 115, 134 and 135 in offensive efficiency.
Now Toledo faces a different beast in Louisville, a team that ranks 39th in yards per play. The issue for Louisville’s offense, however, is turnovers, which has led to a lower points-per-drive number. Louisville ended the season with 41 points and zero turnovers against Kentucky.
So when it’s good, it’s very good.
The issue for Toledo in this contest is that its head coach took a job at UConn. Jason Candle had been at Toledo since 2016, and it was time for him to move up. Same as every Group of Six program in this spot, which is why I worry about the motivation for Toledo.
The Rockets are playing for an interim coach, with their players either going to the NFL or looking to hit the portal. I don’t know how hard they will try in this game, but I do expect Louisville to care about finishing the season strong.
PICK: Louisville (-8) to win by more than 8 points
SATURDAY, DEC. 27
No. 25 North Texas @ San Diego State
North Texas played for an American Conference title and a trip to the College Football Playoff against Tulane on conference championship weekend. With a win, the Mean Green likely would have headed to face Mississippi in the first round.
Instead, they were routed by Tulane and their chance at a Playoff berth evaporated.
We’ve seen teams that lose their conference championship game often struggle in bowl games. The emotional let-down from missing out on that opportunity is severe.
On top of that, is the North Texas coaching staff departing for Oklahoma State?
Head coach Eric Morris accepted the Oklahoma State job a few weeks ago. He’s bringing along some staff members, and I’d imagine the best players from the Mean Green now want to be Cowboys.
Will those players suit up for the bowl game, and how focused will everyone be as they face San Diego State?
The Aztecs had a fantastic season under Sean Lewis. They went 9-3 in 2025, which was their most wins since 2021. Their offense does struggle to move the ball, but their defense is fantastic. They are fourth in the country in defensive points per drive. That’s important when facing an explosive North Texas offense.
North Texas is first in points per drive on offense but just 64th on defense. The Mean Green’s run defense is awful as well, ranking 126th in rushing success rate. The Aztecs will be highly motivated to win this game. North Texas, on the other hand, probably doesn’t care at all.
The number opened SDSU +6, and it’s now down to 3. I’d take the three ASAP before it continues to drop.
PICK: San Diego State (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 31
Now that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is retiring, we know that the Utes will be fired up to send him off with a huge win. However, I’m worried about Utah’s opt-outs for this game, especially at offensive line, but I do believe most of the team will play.
Utah is going to run directly at Nebraska’s bad run defense. The Utes are ranked 118th in EPA vs. the run, while Utah’s offense is first in rushing EPA. Utah will attempt to pound the rock directly at the Cornhuskers.
I then have concerns about the motivation for Nebraska in this game.
The Cornhuskers lost their starting quarterback weeks ago. Matt Rhule fired the offensive and defensive line coaches. He fired the defensive coordinator. It certainly feels like Nebraska has moved on to 2026 and the results of the Cornhuskers’ final two games are evidence. There was a 37-10 loss to Penn State and then 40-16 to Iowa.
Give me the Utes
PICK: Utah (-15.5) to win by more than 15.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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