ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 1. Kazakhstan’s
National Bank has revised its inflation forecasts upward for the
next three years, citing stronger-than-expected price growth and
rising inflation expectations, Trend reports via the NBK.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) said it now expects
inflation at 12-13% in 2025, easing to 9.5-12.5% in 2026. By the
end of 2027, inflation is projected to slow to 5.5-7.5%. The
revisions reflect this year’s inflation consistently exceeding
earlier projections, as well as elevated household
expectations.
The forecast also factors in more predictable increases in
regulated tariffs, following the updated trajectory of the
‘inflation +5%’ price reform planned for 2026-2027.
The wider range for 2026 reflects increased uncertainty tied to
tax reform, demand reaction, and a sharp expansion of quasi-budget
financing, which the central bank said is likely to have a
stimulatory effect on the economy.
The NBK said disinflation over the forecast horizon will be
supported by a moderately tight monetary stance, fiscal
consolidation and measures under the government’s joint action
programme. At the same time, further liberalisation of the fuel
market and strong domestic demand, boosted by quasi-fiscal
spending, will continue to put upward pressure on prices.
Key risks include widening demand-supply imbalances, faster
external inflation, rising expectations, and secondary effects from
higher regulated tariffs, fuel prices and VAT increases. A major
source of uncertainty is the government’s plan to expand financing
via the state holding Baiterek, expected to reach 8 trillion tenge
(nearly $15.5 billion) – 4.4% of GDP – in 2026, which the NBK
warned could heighten inflationary pressure and offset part of the
planned fiscal tightening.
