Among the most controversial political efforts in Switzerland of the past decade, the ‘No to 10 million people’ anti-immigration initiative is expected to be brought to the ballot box in 2026. What exactly is it aiming for?
Much has been said and written about the contentious initiative, spearheaded by the hard right Swiss People’s Party (SVP).
We know that it seeks to drastically reduce the influx of foreigners to Switzerland, so that the country’s population doesn’t exceed the 10-million mark, which the populist party says will overburden key infrastructure, such as housing, public transport, the health system, and schools.
READ ALSO: What Switzerland’s new vote to limit immigration could mean
That’s the basic idea behind the initiative, but The Local looked at the original text of the SVP proposal to see the exact details.
This is what it says.
The basic principle
The proposal stipulates that “Switzerland’s permanent resident population must not exceed ten million people before 2050. From 2050 onwards, the Federal Council may adjust this limit annually.”
Currently, the country’s population stands at just over 9 million, including nearly 2.5 million foreign nationals – that is, over 27 percent of the population.
To achieve this goal, both the federal government and the cantons must “ensure sustainable population development, in particular with a view to protecting the environment and in the interest of the sustainable conservation of natural resources, the performance of infrastructure, healthcare, and Swiss social security.”
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What does the SVP mean by “permanent resident population?
It comprises all Swiss nationals whose principal residence is in Switzerland, “as well as all persons of foreign nationality holding a residence permit of at least twelve months or who have been residing in Switzerland for at least twelve months.”
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What else is the initiative calling for?
At its core, it states that the permanent resident population must not exceed ten million people before 2050.
However, if this particular population group exceeds 9.5 million people before the year 2050, then the Federal Council and the parliament would have to take measures, “in particular with regard to asylum and family reunification, to ensure that persons admitted on a provisional basis may no longer obtain a residence or settlement permit, nor Swiss citizenship, nor any other right to remain in Switzerland.”
EU treaties
Once this threshold is met – that is, 9.5 million residents prior to 2050 – the SVP wants the government “to renegotiate international agreements that promote population growth.”
Concretely, this would entail the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons (AFMP) that has been in effect between Bern and Brussels since 2002, as well as all other international pacts that Switzerland signed in regards to “humanitarian migration” like asylum seekers and refugees.
The Federal Council should also activate, whenever needed, the safeguard clause to cut the number of immigrants from certain countries, the initiative states.
READ ALSO: Why are EU and Switzerland in deadlock over ‘safeguard’ clause on immigration?
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And there is more…
The initiative states that if the population limit is exceeded but the terms are not respected, Switzerland must no longer comply with the AFMP.
Why is the SVP initiative targeting only nationals of the European Union and EFTA (Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein?)
Not only do most foreign nationals – 1.5 million people – living and working in Switzerland come from those states, but also (unlike citizens of third countries), they have an unlimited access to the country’s labour market.
Therefore, they are the ones most impacted by the initiative.
What are other demographic growth scenarios for Switzerland?
The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has a slightly different timeline: it forecasts 10 million people in Switzerland in 2040 and 10.5 million in 2055, representing an average annual increase of 0.5 percent. “From 2035 onwards, this growth will come exclusively from migration,” the FSO said.
And there are other variations as well, the ‘high’ and ‘low’ scenario.
The first one will lead to a permanent population of 11.7 million in 2055, while the second “assumes lower net migration, a slight decline in fertility, and virtually no increase in life expectancy. If this scenario materialises, the population will reach 9.3 million in 2055. In this scenario, it will peak in 2042 and then begin to decline.
Most demographers however, believe, the population will continue to grow steadily through migration.
What happens next / when will the vote take place?
The vote will most likely take place in 2026, though no exact date has been set.
Until then, the SVP will campaign to persuade the voters to approve the initiative, while the opponents – including the government, most political parties, as well as economists – will argue that the proposal will be detrimental to Switzerland’s future.
In the end, as has always been the case under Switzerland’s unique system of direct democracy – the citizens will decide the referendum’s outcome.
At this point, it is too early to say what the result will be, though one nationwide poll carried out in September 2025, indicates that, far from being rejected outright, the proposal could be accepted – even if by a very narrow majority of voters.
READ ALSO: Will Swiss voters back the anti-immigration proposal?
If it passes, then the Federal Council will have a certain timeline to implement the new legislation.
If it is rejected by voters, nothing will change.
