At a time when immigration is becoming an increasingly polarising subject in Spain, a major fiscal authority has revised its immigration forecasts by as much as 50 percent, while stating that foreigners are boosting economic growth in the country.
Spain is reportedly set to gain over 600,000 immigrants this year, around 50 percent more than authorities had previously forecast.
The 600,000 figure is a net figure, but reporting from Spanish daily El Mundo suggests that is 50 percent more than what Spain’s Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) had estimated in March.
This comes at a time when an increased flow of migration into Spain has both boosted the economy but also contributed to rising prices in the property market. AIReF analysis shows a clear link between migrants and GDP growth in Spain.
At the beginning of the year, AIReF calculated that Spain would gain 400,000 immigrants in 2025, down from 571,000 in 2024, but given migration data recorded by Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) so far this year, that forecast has fallen short by a considerable margin.
READ ALSO: Why so many different types of foreigners are choosing to move to Spain
“The good cyclical moment of the Spanish economy and the behaviour of the labour market could attract a greater number of immigrants than expected,” said Cristina Herrero, AIReF President.
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Spanish daily El Mundo notes that “the fact that the arrival of immigrants is higher than estimated is very important in economic terms, as it translates into a boost for the labour market and private consumption,” adding that it explains in part “the upward revisions to the growth estimates for the Spanish economy for this year. AIReF yesterday raised it by seven tenths of a percentage point to 3 percent, in line with other institutions.”
As The Local has previously reported, immigration has spurred economic growth in Spain in the post-pandemic period, as well as population growth.
READ ALSO: Spain’s population keeps increasing due to immigration
In August, the population of Spain hit a record high of 49.3 million people thanks once again to the arrival of more migrants, counteracting the country’s rock-bottom birth rates.
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“When comparing the real GDP growth observed in Spain between 2022 and 2025 it can be seen that, in relation to the Economic and Monetary Union, of the 7.7 percentage points of differential growth in Spain, 4.9 are explained by the increase in the population aged between 15 and 74 and the increase in employment -both of which are closely linked,” Herrero states.
“The contribution of the foreign and dual nationality population accounts for more than one third of the growth observed in recent years,” she added.
Looking ahead, AIReF forecasts a moderation in the arrival of immigrants, from more than 650,000 a year in the period from 2022-2024 to around 600,000 this year and 300,000 on average between 2026-2030.
Economists and experts have forecast that Spain’s demographic trends mean the country will need millions more immigrant workers over the coming decades, particularly in order to prop up the pensions system in an ageing country like Spain.
Immigration is becoming an increasingly divisive subject in Spain, not least because of recent anti-migrant unrest in Murcia, and calls by far-right party Vox to deport 8 million foreigners. The centre-right People’s Party (PP) has also outlined a raft of immigration measures in recent weeks.
However, the evidence suggests that the benefits immigration bring to Spain far outweigh simmering fears about the country becoming increasingly multicultural.
READ ALSO: Older and more diverse – What Spain’s population will be like in 50 years
