It’s a great weekend to be a college football underdog.
At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
There are some tantalizing spots for some potential dragonslayers and I also find myself backing the 1-5 Baltimore Ravens. Remember, this isn’t the place for “locks” or five-team parlays. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2025 Record: (19-24-3, -7.2 units)
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No. 15 Missouri @ No. 10 Vanderbilt (-3, O/U 52.5)
Enough with the Vanderbilt hype. The Commodores are good, but are they great? I certainly don’t have them equal with Missouri on a neutral field as the market indicates. Missouri’s defense is coming along quite nicely, and I believe the Tigers’ defensive line will do enough to pressure Diego Pavia and end the Heisman race for one of the nation’s most popular quarterbacks.
PICK: Missouri (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
Toledo (-1, O/U 45.5) @ Washington State
I know, I know. My Toledo Over 8.5 wins bet is hanging on for dear life. It would be nice if the Rockets would stop losing games as double-digit favorites, but that’s not the issue in this spot. Jason Candle has been a moneymaker in these pick ‘em roles over the years, and it’s very telling that Toledo has swung to the favorite in a game all the way out west.
PICK: Toledo (-1) to win by more than 1 point
No. 4 Alabama (-11.5, O/U 47.5) @ South Carolina
Going against Alabama last week was a feisty move. Tennessee’s offense had the ball at the Bama 1-yard line at the end of the first half. Then Joey Aguilar threw an errant pass that was intercepted and returned for a 99-yard pick-six. Them’s the breaks sometimes. Now the Tide get a sleepy road at South Carolina after winning four straight games against top-25 teams. I dare.
Northwestern @ Nebraska (-7.5, O/U 44.5)
The Northwestern defense has really tightened its screws over the last few weeks. It is shutting opponents’ water off inside the red zone and that’s not great news for a Nebraska offense that has struggled to cross the goal line. I expect a bounce-back effort from the Huskers’ defense against the very run-heavy Wildcats. This feels like a 21-17 type final in Lincoln.
PICK: Under 44.5 combined points scored
PICK: South Carolina (+11.5) to lose by fewer than 11.5 points or win outright
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2.5, O/U 49.5) @ No. 20 LSU
The Tigers are catching points at home in a night game. I repeat, the Tigers are catching points at home in a night game. Brian Kelly’s bunch fell on the road to Vanderbilt and now their season is on the line in Baton Rouge. I believe the LSU defense shows up to play and that Garrett Nussmeier does just enough against an Aggies D that’s been playing with fire for weeks.
PICK: LSU (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Las Vegas bookmakers expect Lamar Jackson to play despite reporters saying he’s “questionable” for Sunday’s tilt against Chicago. That’s why a 1-5 team is laying a touchdown to a 4-2 team. I don’t want to say the Bears are fugazi, but let’s see them stop a real offense. Las Vegas, shorthanded Washington and New Orleans don’t hold a candle to Jackson, Derrick Henry & Co.
PICK: Ravens (-7) to win by more than 7 points
Commanders @ Chiefs (-12.5, O/U 48)
Speaking of ugly, I’m taking the points and going against Kansas City now that everyone has decided the Chiefs will prance through the AFC on their way to another Super Bowl appearance. Marcus Mariota is a serviceable NFL backup, and it sounds like receiver Terry McLaurin is going to play. The Chiefs have bigger fish to fry, including a game at Buffalo next weekend.
PICK: Commanders (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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