The global economy is entering a period of subdued growth and heightened disruption, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook. The report reveals that 72% of surveyed chief economists expect global growth to weaken over the next year. Intensifying trade disruption, rising policy uncertainty, and rapid technological advancement are cited as principal forces shaping a new economic environment. These developments point towards a landscape characterised by persistent disruption and increasing fragmentation.
The report highlights a stark divergence in growth expectations across regions. Emerging markets, particularly those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia, and East Asia and the Pacific, are seen as key drivers of global growth, while advanced economies are projected to face stagnation. One in three chief economists expect strong or very strong growth in these emerging regions. The outlook for China remains mixed, with 56% foreseeing moderate growth amid persistent deflationary pressures. Advanced economies such as Europe and the United States are anticipated to experience weak growth and fiscal or inflationary challenges.
Debt vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly pronounced in advanced economies. The report notes that 80% of surveyed chief economists expect debt risks to escalate in advanced economies over the coming year. Fiscal vulnerabilities are now cited as top growth inhibitors by 41% of respondents for advanced economies, compared to just 12% for developing economies. This shift indicates a growing concern surrounding the sustainability of public finances in wealthier nations, a risk that was previously more commonly associated with emerging markets.
Trade disruption has reached what chief economists describe as “very high” levels. Seventy percent of respondents rate the current trade environment as highly disruptive, with over three-quarters expecting this instability to cascade into other parts of the global economy. These disruptions extend beyond trade to impact global value chains, financial markets, and broader economic institutions, leading to systemic uncertainty.
Financial markets and monetary policy are also facing elevated volatility. Forty-five percent of chief economists rate disruption in these areas as high or very high, although only 21% believe such disturbances will persist in the long term. While most do not anticipate a significant near-term crisis in advanced economies (52%), there remains widespread concern, with 85% warning that any shock could have broad systemic consequences.
The Outlook identifies a structural, rather than cyclical, nature to the current disruptions. Large majorities of respondents anticipate enduring upheaval in natural resources and energy (78%), technology and innovation (75%), trade and global value chains (63%), and global economic institutions (63%). This consensus marks a departure from previous eras, suggesting that the current period of adjustment will likely have lasting effects on global growth and cooperation.
Chief economists caution that advanced and developing economies are set to follow increasingly divergent growth trajectories. Fifty-six percent of respondents expect this divergence to widen over the coming three years. While emerging markets may offer resilience and growth opportunities, advanced economies will need to contend with fiscal constraints and slowing growth.
