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2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Michigan State Rises, Illinois Drops

GenevaTimes by GenevaTimes
February 28, 2026
in Sports
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2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Michigan State Rises, Illinois Drops
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Consider it the Big Ten for big movement.

Following its Friday night 84-70 home loss to No. 3 Michigan, No. 10 Illinois — which posted second consecutive loss — has slipped in FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, as has No. 12 Nebraska.

Meanwhile, No. 13 Michigan State got a road victory over No. 8 Purdue on Thursday, which moved the Spartans up one spot. Elsewhere, Troy clinched the Sun Belt regular season championship, getting the Trojans into the projected field.

Michigan State posted its second ranked win of February on the road against Purdue on Feb. 26. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

[COLLEGE HOOPS: Takeaways From UConn’s Win Over St. John’s]

Here is a complete look at DeCourcy’s NCAA Tournament seed list:

No. 1 seeds

1. Duke
2. Michigan
3. Arizona
4. Connecticut

No. 2 seeds

5. Iowa State
6. Florida
7. Houston
8. Kansas

No. 3 seeds

9. Illinois
10. Purdue
11. Gonzaga
12. Michigan State

No. 4 seeds

13. Nebraska
14. Virginia
15. Alabama
16. Texas Tech

No. 5 seeds

17. Arkansas
18. Vanderbilt
19. St. John’s
20. North Carolina

No. 6 seeds

21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. BYU
24. Villanova

No. 7 seeds

25. UCF
26. Kentucky
27. Saint Mary’s
28. Saint Louis

No. 8 seeds

29. Utah State
30. Wisconsin
31. Miami RedHawks
32. Miami Hurricanes

No. 9 seeds

33. Iowa
34. NC State
35. Georgia
36. SMU

No. 10 seeds

37. UCLA
38. Missouri
39. Clemson
40. Texas A&M

No. 11 seeds

41. Texas
42. California
43. TCU v. 44. Indiana
45. Santa Clara v. 46. VCU

No. 12 seeds

47. Belmont
48. South Florida
49. Yale
50. Liberty

No. 13 seeds

51. Stephen F. Austin
52. UNC Wilmingon
53. High Point
54. Utah Valley

No. 14 seeds

55. Hawaii
56. Austin Peay
57. North Dakota State
58. Navy

No. 15 seeds

59. Troy
60. Portland State
61. East Tennessee State
62. Wright State

No. 16 seeds

63. Merrimack
64. LIU
65. UMBC
66. Bethune-Cookman
67. Morehead State
68. Morgan State

And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble.

According to DeCourcy’s seed list, Auburn, San Diego State, Virginia Tech and USC are the first four teams out of the tournament, while Ohio State, New Mexico, Seton Hall and Oklahoma State are the next four out.

Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.

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