The March 2026 report on European demographic trends found that Genoa, Italy, is at the biggest risk of becoming a “ghost town” in the next decade. With birth rates falling below death rates across Europe, a new study by World Depopulation, a global demographics analytics tool, shows which cities face the sharpest population drops.
https://worlddepopulation.org/
- Genoa, Italy, faces the worst demographic crisis in Europe, with nearly 30% of residents over 65 and more deaths than births every year.
- Polish cities are emptying out fast, with Katowice and Lodz both ranking among the five cities at highest risk of population collapse.
- Porto, Portugal, loses 0.7% of residents annually, shrinking faster than any other major European city.
The study aimed to identify European cities most at risk of long-term demographic decline. The report compiled a list of global cities with populations over 500K residents, then selected only European cities located in countries experiencing negative population growth in 2026. The research then examined three factors for each city: average population change until 2036, the share of residents aged 65 and over, and natural population balance calculated by comparing death rates with birth rates. These indicators were combined to create a Ghost Town Risk Score from 0 to 100, with higher scores meaning cities face the worst demographic decline.
Here’s a look at the top 10 European cities most at risk of becoming ghost towns:
| Country | City | Average Population change until 2036 | % of Population 65 and over | Natural Balance (Birth rates-Death rates) | Risk Score |
| Italy | Genoa | -0.34 | 28.50% | -8.0 | 100 |
| Poland | Katowice | -0.64 | 21.50% | -5.98 | 95 |
| Portugal | Porto | -0.71 | 21.10% | -2.92 | 93 |
| Italy | Turin | -0.36 | 25.20% | -5.84 | 86 |
| Poland | Lodz | -0.39 | 23.10% | -7.46 | 85 |
| Germany | Dortmund | -0.62 | 20.40% | -3.15 | 84 |
| Spain | Bilbao | -0.42 | 23.20% | -5.29 | 83 |
| Italy | Palermo | -0.58 | 20.30% | -3.64 | 82 |
| Germany | Leipzig | -0.55 | 20.50% | -1.98 | 77 |
| Spain | Zaragoza | -0.47 | 21.20% | -2.96 | 76 |
You can access the complete research findings here.
1. Genoa, Italy
- Average population change until 2036: -0.34% annually
- Share of population 65 and over: 28.5%
- Natural balance (births minus deaths): -8.0
- Demographic Risk score: 100
Genoa is at the biggest risk of becoming a ghost town over the next decade. The Italian port city sees deaths outnumber births by 8 to 1, the worst balance across all major European cities studied. Nearly 30% of Genoa’s residents are also over 65, meaning the working-age group shrinks faster each year. Population projections show the city losing 0.34% of its residents annually through 2036, which translates to thousands of people disappearing as older generations pass away without enough newborns to replace them.
2. Katowice, Poland
Katowice comes second with the steepest population drop in Europe. The Polish city loses 0.64% of its residents each year, nearly double Genoa’s rate. That’s because Katowice records about 6 deaths for every birth, creating a massive population gap that can’t be closed through immigration alone. The city has a 21.5% elderly population, slightly younger than Genoa, but with the rapid population loss, Katowice faces serious demographic collapse within the next 10 years.
3. Porto, Portugal
Porto ranks third, experiencing the fastest annual shrinkage rate in Europe at 0.71%. Unlike Genoa and Katowice, Porto has a younger population, with 21% over 65, but the city still struggles to maintain this demographic balance. Deaths exceed births by nearly 3 to 1 here, and the northern Portuguese city’s populace has been declining since the early 2000s. At this rate, Porto is projected to lose 75K more residents by 2036, bringing its population to 900K.
4. Turin, Italy
Turin is another Italian city facing a serious demographic crisis. One quarter of the city’s population is over 65 (25.2%), making it the second-oldest town among the top five. The northern Italian city was once an industrial leader, but as factories closed and young people moved away, deaths now outnumber births by nearly 6 to 1. As a result, Turin currently loses 0.36% of its population each year.
5. Lodz, Poland
Lodz rounds out the top five cities at the biggest risk of becoming ghost towns. The Polish city records a significant imbalance between death and birth rates, with more than 7 people dying for every newborn. And with 23% of locals already over 65, Lodz loses 0.39% of residents annually. The city’s population peaked at over 800K in the 1980s but has since dropped below 700K, and current trends suggest it could fall under 600K by the mid-2030s.
A demographics expert from World Depopulation commented on the study:
“What makes this different from normal population decline is the speed. A city losing 0.6% or 0.7% annually means it’ll be 10% smaller in just 15 years. And in demographic terms, that’s a collapse. Schools close, businesses shut down, property values drop, and then more young people leave because there’s nothing for them. It becomes a cycle that’s extremely hard to break once it starts.”
